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Probabilities for phase 2a and 2b

How to work out success rates you don't have.

It becomes increasingly common to stage phase 2 trials with a phase 2a and a phase 2b trial. This makes a lot of sense from an operational and risk reducing point of view, but how do we determine the probabilities for these trials? Typically, only transition probabilities for the regular phase 1, 2, 3, paradigm are published. We tell you how to figure out the probabilities you need.


24/10/2011 and 25/10/2011
License Contract and Company Valuation in Excel
San Diego - USA


Survey about discount rates in pharma and biotech
Survey of industry professionals by Biostrat and Avance about the discount rates for biotech companies.

The effect of taxes on the value of start-up companies
Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis

Valuation Book

Valuation in Life Sciences 3rd Edition
"Valuation in Life Sciences. A Practical Guide" has become the industry reference book. It has now been released already in its 3rd edition.

Click here to order.

License Contract and Company Valuation:
2-day workshop in San Diego

Avance holds a 2-days' workshop on company valuation in San Diego (24/25 October). The first day will cover project and license valuation. On the second day we will touch company valuation with delicate topics like cost of capital, taxes, and Monte Carlo simulations. All topics will be put into practice with a case study in Excel.

San Diego Workshop >

ri:val: Negotiate your deals with ri:val

ri:val has evolved from a valuation software to an important negotiation and planning tool. Clients from pharma, biotech, universities, and the investor community use ri:val to

  • Evaluate term sheets,
  • Elaborate counter-offers,
  • Read and interpret benchmark deals,
  • Value the company,
  • Run various clinical scenarios,
  • Define liquidity needs,
  • Plan resource allocation,
  • Compare different strategies.

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